Attn Democrats: gotchas are not going to cut it this cycle

Just a little bit of advice to Democrats in Ohio: gotcha politics and lame fake scandals are not going to change the political dynamic this cycle. No matter how hard you try to catch Republicans in awkward situations or try to paint Tea Party folks as extremists it will not change the fundamental fact that unemployment is over 10%, your popularity is droping like a stone and you have no answers.

The latest example of this strategy is some bad jokes at a fundraising event. Yes, the jokes were in poor taste and not even funny. Yes, that is a headline if there ever was one: politicians are not funny!  Anyone who has ever attended any of these events could tell you that. Most politicians are just not funny and they don’t have a history of timely humor either.

As an aside, let me just say to any and all political activists, Tea Party organizers, and others involved in campaign events:

Please just shut up about the birth certificate! LET IT GO!

I don’t think these type of things matter a great deal but why waste everyone’s time and energy on this. Focus on what is important.

But in the end all these little controversies are just distractions. The fundamental issue of this election is jobs, jobs and jobs. Out of control federal spending and big government solutions that will only further hamper the economy are undercurrents that reinforce the jobs issue.  Any candidate who doesn’t get that is in trouble.

Rob Portman gets it. And he has focused his campaign like a laser on the issue.  And that is why he is leading in the polls despite running against two experienced candidates holding state wide office.

And this is why the left wants to attack him anytime anyone in his general vicinity says anything remotely controversial. This despite the fact that the left – both elected officials and activists – has smeared an entire populist movement of active citizens by making vulgar sexualized and derisive comments. Despite the history of poor taste and outrageous accusations that liter the history of the left and Democrats in this country.

Heck, most leftist blogs are unreadable thanks to their angry vulgarity and mouth frothing style. And yet Democrats stumbled over themselves to praise them when they need their money. And no one required denunciations. The hypocrisy here is staggering. The GOP is the only party who is required to distance themselves from any possible scandal or comment in poor tastes. Democrats compare President Bush to Hitler: perfectly fine. Republicans make a joke about Obama’s birth certificate: outrage!

But in the larger picture these gotcha attempts and fake scandals are just media moments and they won’t sway any votes or impact the campaign in any real way.

So on second thought, Democrats keep focusing on them while Republicans focus on the issues that matter. We will let the voters decide what is important.

Brunner Fisher most boring primary in history?

Speaking of Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner is this the most boring primary evah? I mean this is supposed to be a battle royale for a crucial Senate seat. Democrats fighting for their political lives. Progressives showing their might, etc. This race is pretty important in Ohio and even nationally. And yet … nothing.

I will confess I have not trolled the lefty blogs for the latest talking points or arguments but it seems to me this primary is producing absolutely nothing of interest. Not debates between candidates no juicy arguments about the direction of the party or why either candidate is clearly superior.  The media seems bored by it as well.

Are the Dems afraid of taking shots at each other? Is Fisher just going to assume his money and his establishment support makes him the winner? I she afraid if he attacks Brunner he will lose the leftist base?

Is Brunner counting on support from the base and from women putting her over the top? Is she afraid to take shots at Fisher? Has she done any polling? Can she afford to?

I find it interesting that sixty days out we have a critical primary but one which is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

John Kasich: Ohio’s Next Governor

Yes, I just claimed that John Kasich is going to be Ohio’s next governor. This is not meant as hyperbole. I really believe Kasich is going to beat Governor Strickland in November.

This is not based on deep study of the polls or a county-by-county analysis or anything of that sort. It is more of a gut feeling based on how I see the campaign playing out. Now, of course, a great deal could change in the intervening months: scandals, gaffes, the political environment, etc. But right now I don’t see any of that happening in such a way to change the underlying landscape.

I have begun to think that elections are determined in many ways by some pretty basic elements. What is the mood, what is the central issue or issues, how the candidates are perceived and what are their one sentence arguments for running.

On these basics Kasich is simply better situated to win than Strickland.

Details – such as they are – below.

Read more..

Leveraging the power of social media in Ohio campaigns

Interesting article at the Daily Caller: What’s social campaigning got to do with it?

In the 10 states where leading political prognosticators deem the Senate seat a “tossup” (Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania) an analysis of social media tools being employed by the various candidates from Jan. 29-Feb. 6, 2010, revealed some striking results.

Here is the section on Ohio:

Ohio provides yet another example where both candidates could be doing more to launch the social campaign strategies. The presumptive GOP nominee, former Congressman Rob Portman, is only utilizing some bare-bones social media tools; while Portman’s campaign is showing strong Facebook (4,018 fans) and Twitter (1,210 followers) numbers, he has thus far failed to incorporate YouTube, SMS/text, MySpace, LinkedIn, Digg or Widgets. To his credit, all the following are also being used by his campaign: a blog, Flickr, email sign-up and grassroots/action center.

Fortunately for Portman, his two rivals in the Democratic primary—Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher—appear similarly situated with their weak social media strategies. Brunner has 2,208 Facebook fans, compared to Fisher’s 2,817 fans; Brunner has 1,286 Twitter followers compared to Fisher’s 806 followers; and both have nearly the same number of YouTube channel views (585 vs. 518, respectively). While Brunner is using SMS/text and a campaign blog, Fisher is a rarity in that he’s using Digg—but neither Brunner nor Fisher has embraced MySpace, LinkedIn or Widgets.

What do you think? Will social media play an important role in Ohio campaigns? Will it be a difference maker or just another component? Who do you think is best utilizing these tools right now?

Portman for Senate RV Tour through Northeast Ohio

I have done a few updates from the Portman for Senate RV Tour.  But this one is a bit more professional (less shaky flip video style). It does a nice job giving you some of the local flavor that the RV Tour involves but also highlights Portman’s laser focus on jobs and how Washington policies are job killers at the worst possible time. Worth a watch:

Meet John Kasich: Devoted to a New Day for Ohio.

I have a longer post brewing on the Ohio governor’s race jumping off the latest polls, etc. but until that is done check out this nice candidate introduction video from team Kasisch:

Ganley switching to take on Betty Sutton?

I had heard this was in the works a few weeks ago, and it has been discussed quite a bit on Twitter, but now we have a link (that makes it credible, right? Yeah, journalism!)

Boondoggle

I’ll take “Words I love for $500, Alex” Answer: What is boondoggle.

Ad? Yes, ad:

Bill Johnson declares for Ohio’s 6th Congressional District

I thought I would pass this along in case you hadn’t seen it elsewhere. From the press release:

Conservative Republican Bill Johnson today announced his candidacy for Congress in Ohio’s 6th district.

Johnson is a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, entrepreneur and currently servesas Chief Information Officer of a publicly traded manufacturing company.

He says his experiences have helped propel his decision to run for office.

“Serving in the military gave me opportunities that I might never have had and I see public service as a way to give back,” Johnson said.  ”And there’s certainly a need – our government is dangerously off track.”

Johnson has been considering a run with an exploratory committee since October. During that time he’s traveled thousands of miles and met hundreds of people.  He’s raised $107,000.00 for his campaign so far.

“President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Charlie Wilson appear to think that more government is the solution to every problem,” Johnson said.  ”But, no one outside the D.C. beltway thinks bigger government, more debt and higher taxes are the answer.”

Who is Bill Johnson? Short bio blurb:

Bill Johnson retired from the Air Force after a 27-year career and cofounded Johnson-Schley Management Group, Inc., an information technology (IT) consulting company.  Later, he formed J2 Business Solutions, Inc., where he focused on providing executive level IT support as a contractor to the U.S. military.  Since 2006, Johnson has served as Chief Information Officer of a global manufacturer serving the transportation industry. Johnson and his wife LeeAnn live with son Nathan in Poland, Ohio.

Press release also notes: “A new, robust website will be launched soon at www.BillJohnsonLeads.com.”

Fisher blames Ohio recession on Small Business Administration

That’s right, folks. Former Ohio Jobs Czar, and now US Senate candidate, Lee Fisher put his brain trust together to get to the bottom of the economic problems of Ohio and this is what he came up with:

One of the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate said regulations and big banking corporations have hurt small Ohio businesses in a small study he released Wednesday.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who is seeking the seat of retiring Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, compared two types of small business loan dollars from 2006 to 2009 throughout Ohio. The study suggested loans to small businesses in Ohio dropped 34 percent from 2006 to 2009.

Wow. Thanks for that fascinating bit of information, Lee. That is a real eye openner!

Sarcasm aside, this seems like rather small potatoes doesn’t it?  SBA loans? Of course, he blames Portman who is once again the “architect” of this whole failed policy. But this is low level wonk type stuff not something that is going to alter the tone or trajectory of the campaign in the least.

I don’t know if Fisher has noticed but unemployment is at 10% and poised to stay there for years. The state budget is in shambles and the national debt is reaching numbers must people have never used before. Government loans to small businesses is very far down the list of things most voters care about. And even if they did this small bore study is practically useless without a lot more context and data. Maybe some grad student can write a paper on it.

In the meantime, Fisher supports President Obama and his quest to spend more money than any government has in the history of the universe and pass job killing legislation like Cap and Trade and the Federal takeover of healthcare.

SBA loans, Jiminy Cricket …

Next Page »