John Kasich: Ohio’s Next Governor

Yes, I just claimed that John Kasich is going to be Ohio’s next governor. This is not meant as hyperbole. I really believe Kasich is going to beat Governor Strickland in November.

This is not based on deep study of the polls or a county-by-county analysis or anything of that sort. It is more of a gut feeling based on how I see the campaign playing out. Now, of course, a great deal could change in the intervening months: scandals, gaffes, the political environment, etc. But right now I don’t see any of that happening in such a way to change the underlying landscape.

I have begun to think that elections are determined in many ways by some pretty basic elements. What is the mood, what is the central issue or issues, how the candidates are perceived and what are their one sentence arguments for running.

On these basics Kasich is simply better situated to win than Strickland.

Details – such as they are – below.

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Bob Taft is feeling pretty good these days

What with Ted Strickland taking all the heat from left and right while the economy makes Taft’s time in office seem like an oasis of prosperity.

The folks over at the Education Gadfly had the bright idea of talking to him about his new found perspective.  And it produced some interesting quotes.  These two in particular caught my attention:

Is a good education a matter of money?

Overall, funding is not the biggest obstacle to school improvement in Ohio. It’s how we can best use the time and talent of educators to improve education for all kids, particularly for kids in urban areas…. Resources are important but more important is how the dollars are used at the school level to change what is happening in the classrooms.

Is it time for a tax increase?

It’s nice not to be governor right now and worry about those decisions….The temporary one-cent sales tax increase was not popular, but I believed it was necessary after all the cuts we had already made. Today, I’m not close enough to the details of the budget to answer that question…. I do believe, however, that it is important to continue the income-tax reductions underway because Ohio’s rates are too high from a competitive standpoint when you put the state income tax together with our city income taxes. You don’t want to be one of the highest income-tax states…. It’s hard to compete with Texas and Florida [and other states without income taxes] but now we’re not even competing with surrounding states.

More on this below.

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Dispatch looks to Voinovich; dreams of tax increases

Jon over at 3BP takes the time to explain to Joe Hallet why gubanatorial candidate John Kaisch did the right thing by not getting involved in the budget debate:

Simply because Kasich has announced his candidacy does not mean he has an obligation to have fully developed policy proposals with only a skeleton staff tasked with getting his campaign up and running.

Mr. Hallett, there are 477 days until November 2nd, 2010. Make no mistake, John Kasich will give Ohioans a vast understanding of how he will govern and where he stands. And he has plenty of time to do so.

Jon is of course right that expecting Kasich to offer details on how to fix Ohio’s budget crisis is politically foolish, unwarranted, and unwanted by either party.  He is after all not an elected official but merely a candidate a long ways out from election day.

But this ignores the real reason Joe Hallett wrote the column in the first place.  Because in the eyes of the Columbus Dispatch real leadership means raising taxes (see here and here).

Details below.

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Kasich on the stimulus and economic growth

Kasich really has an interesting message and style.  For obvious reasons, he is promoting his work during the 90s and the growth of that period.  But he is also in a sense running against the GOP leadership that followed that period; against Bob Taft and against Bush and the GOP who he says “forgot the formula.”

It really is classic GOP themes and message but with a populist twist and independent style.  Democrats are going to try and paint him as just another Republican with the same policies that caused our problems; ie George W. Bush.  But I think they are going to have trouble making this stick because of the economy and because of the skills and style that Kasich brings.

“Where have you been until now, Governor?”

The Cleveland Plain Dealer asks the relevant question:

Strickland said that although publicly offering a detailed fix even as a Senate-House budget conference toils is a break with tradition, Ohio’s economy is the worst it has been in 80 years. That’s why, aside from questions about the specifics of his slots plan, it’s fair to ask, “Where have you been until now, Governor?”

That is the question that should be on voters minds.  As the budget process plays out and the economy continues to sink they need to be asking themselves if Strickland has the ideas and leadership ability to do what he promised them turn Ohio around.

Can anyone honestly say that so far he has shown that he does?

And this is the fundamental problem for Strickland.  He was a safe choice in an election where voters were distructful of the GOP after a series of miscues, scandals, and a general lack of competence.  But the caretaker role won’t work anymore.

More below. Read more..

Party of Corruption Alert

Remember when the Democrats charged into power accusing the GOP of being corrupt after too much time under “One Party Rule”?  During those heady days Democratic politicians seemingly couldn’t talk about an issue without using the phrase “party of corruption.”  But then their standard bearer and inspiration turned out to have some problems of his own.

Those not blinded by partisanship, however, have long understood that corruption isn’t connected to one party or the other but to flawed human nature and the temptations of power.

Even so, many have wondered how it was that seemingly the entire GOP structure was tainted with corruption because Bob Taft failed to report some golf outings and a long time operative/fundraiser lied to people who considered him a friend while concocting some complicated scam involving coin investments and the BWC.

Why do I bring all this up?  No reason

Three Cuyahoga County officials were accused today of steering jobs and millions of dollars in public contracts for Las Vegas gambling trips, expensive meals and “personal services” in the first major charges to be filed in the county public corruption scandal.

Federal prosecutors charged J. Kevin Kelley, a former Parma school board member, and two others who worked with him in the county engineer’s office with conspiracy, public corruption, bribery, tax counts and mail fraud.

Kelley, Kevin Payne and Daniel Gallagher — all with ties to the engineer’s office — and a fourth man, Brian Schuman, are expected to appear in U.S. District Court for their first appearances within the next few weeks.

A cynical person might wonder about this type of thing and its connection to the Democratic Party.  They might wonder if the incestuous relationship between the party power brokers in urban areas and those that depend on government contracts (from social services to construction and transportation) breeds corruption. Some might even wonder about a president whose career started in an urban area with a long history of such corruption.

Payne, Gallagher and Kelley are accused of helping to steer $5.26 million in contracts for the county’s GIS system in exchange for tens of thousands of dollars in kickbacks.

The charges also said that Kelley helped push a $1.8 million contract through the Parma schools, where he was the president of the board. Kelley made an agreement with the unknown company to kick back thousands of dollars to Gallagher’s company, the Eagle Group, supposedly for public relations work. Gallagher, Payne and Kelley split $12,000 of the money given to Gallagher’s company.

But I’m not that cynical …

The end of the “Golden Age” of school funding?

The Education Gadfly at the Thomas B. Fordham Foundation has a provocative post on the “Golden Age” of school funding in light of the budget realities Ohio is facing:

The fact is, however, that we may very well come to see the last decade as a “golden age” for funding Ohio public schools. Consider figure 1 that shows per-pupil funding in the state rising, using inflation-adjusted dollars, by nearly 30 percent in the last decade. This does not include the billions spent by the state and local districts on new facilities for school since the late 1990s.

Figure 1: Inflation-adjusted Per-Pupil Revenue for K-12 Education in Ohio, 1981-2008

Source: Ohio Department of Education, Center for School Options & Finance, Simulation, Foundation & Analysis Unit, adjusted using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation calculator

Frankly, Ohio has made real progress since the first DeRolph case in 1997 in how it funds its public schools and in the amount of money taxpayers dedicate to education.

Consider that Ohio spends about 4.2 percent of its taxable resources on K-12 education – ranking it fifth among all states. In its 2008 “Funding Gap” report, the nonpartisan Education Trust in Washington, D.C., cited Ohio as just one of ten states to successfully decrease the gaps between low – and high-poverty districts (see here).

The problem is, this fact is never acknowledged.  For liberals it often seems that there is no such thing as “enough” money.  The districts, unions and their allies constantly decry the lack of funds.  Everyone complains that we don’t value our children enough to really support education.  On and on it goes.

Conservatives meanwhile rarely trumpet the progress they made while in the majority.  The base doesn’t get riled up by hearing that the GOP increased spending on education by 30%.  Defending former Governor Bob Taft is a fools errand these days.

But this reality has to be acknowledged if the current budget, and Governor Strickland’s proposed “reforms”, are to be debated intelligently.  The liberal argument that the problem with Ohio’s education is a lack of funding just doesn’t mesh with the facts.  Strickland’s plan likewise focused on spending more money and hiring more staff instead of finding out what works and rewarding it.

Ohio needs a system that incents excellence and weeds out mediocrity not one that ramps up funding across the board.  Ohio needs flexibility and responsiveness not more rules and regulations. Ohio needs a student focused funding system not one that strengthens the power of district bureaucrats.

As the Ohio House and Senate Conferees begin meeting this week to work on the budget they should keep in mind Fordham’s recommendation:

If Ohio is serious about school reform it needs to move from providing just more money for more inputs to crafting policies that maximize school efficiency and effectiveness.

25 on the 25th

Kasich supporters aren’t ‘t resting on their laurels basking in the glow of all the buzz from the announcement last week.  They want to take that energy and build on it.  So they have created 25 on 25th.  The premise is to get as many people as possible to pledge $25 on June 25th:

Ohio’s unemployment sits at a 25 year high. While unemployment has increased by 90% during his watch, Governor Strickland plays the blame game as Ohio falls further and further behind. Ohioans are in a rough spot. Times are tough, families are making less, and over 608,000 Ohioans are without a job.

Ohio has a chance to fight back.

John Kasich has the record, the plans and the determination to bring real change to the state of Ohio. While representing Ohio in Congress, John served as the chief architect of our nation’s first balanced budget in almost 30 years. He can do it again for Ohio.

We tend to believe inspiration without action is meaningless, so it’s time to stand up next to John Kasich and show him your support. We’re asking for a unified, grassroots effort to show Ohio is ready to fight back. That’s why we created 25 on 25th.

Interesting idea and interesting use of Bob Taft in that video (gotta smart a little)!

But let’s face it, if Kasich is going to compete he is going to have to raise a lot of money and build on the momentum he has created with a very good kick-off event.

This is your chance Kasich fans to make a big splash and singal to the state, and the country, the kind of support he has at the grassroots level.